ARE DOGS THE NEW CHILDREN? BIRTH RATES AND DOG OWNERSHIP ANALYZED IN STUDY

In some countries, the number of dogs has surged to the point where it now surpasses the number of children. While the emotional value of dogs is clearly on the rise globally, it’s still unclear whether people are opting for dogs over having children or if other factors are influencing this shift. Professor Enikő Kubinyi, head of the Department of Ethology at Eötvös Loránd University (ELTE), suggests that while there is a connection between dog ownership and declining birth rates, it’s not quite what we might expect.

Many people now consider their dogs to be family members, with some even prioritizing their canine companions over human relationships. As dog ownership rises, however, human fertility rates continue to decline.

Interestingly, some pet owners, including parents, may value their dog more than any other person. In a recent Hungarian survey, 19% of childless individuals and 10% of parents reported that they valued their dog more than any human.

What might be behind this trend? Professor Enikő Kubinyi’s theory, published in Current Directions in Psychological Science, offers a possible explanation for this surprising shift.

“Some argue that dogs are the new children, while others find this notion outrageous,” Kubinyi observes. “For instance, Pope Francis has called it selfish for childless people to lavish attention on pets.”

“Certain studies suggest that dog owners may have more negative views of motherhood, and mothers who own dogs often find parenting more burdensome, potentially lowering their desire to have more children. In some cases, dogs might even strain romantic relationships. But this is just one perspective,” she adds.

On the other hand, some argue that dog ownership could actually boost human fertility rates. “Families with children are more likely to have dogs, and for some couples, a pet serves as a ‘practice child,’ a way to prepare for having a family. Additionally, women often find men with dogs more attractive, which could increase the likelihood of starting a family.” From this perspective, dog ownership doesn’t replace parenting but instead complements or paves the way for it.

Dogs can also serve as a “social glue,” helping to foster human connections. For instance, walking a dog often leads to more opportunities for social interaction, allowing dogs to play a key role in creating social networks. However, certain dog behavior issues, like aggression or constant barking, can make social interactions more challenging—especially when an owner relies too heavily on their dog for emotional support.

“The decline in the number of children isn’t directly caused by the rise in dog ownership, but both trends stem from the same underlying shift: the transformation of social networks,” Kubinyi explains.

Her theory, known as the “companion animal runaway theory,” posits that the growing popularity of dogs has roots in biological evolution but has escalated culturally. While the caregiving instinct and need for social support are hardwired into human behavior, these instincts have increasingly shifted towards companion animals, as human relationships often lack the depth or presence they once had.

“For example, nearly 90% of Hungarian adults don’t spend even an hour a week caring for young children, despite the fact that humans evolved to practice ‘cooperative breeding,’ where childrearing responsibilities were shared within the community,” Kubinyi notes. “But in modern societies, these support systems have disintegrated. As a result, many people feel they lack support when it comes to raising children—or feel they have no one to care for at all.”

“Some individuals, having experienced emotional pain in human relationships, find comfort and unconditional love in their dogs. Today’s culture fosters this shift in caregiving, with trends like humorous memes, the booming pet care industry, and owners increasingly adopting titles like ‘mom’ or ‘dad’ for their dogs.”

Dogs have increasingly become vital companions for many, stepping in where supportive human relationships may be lacking. Their ability to bond with humans, shaped by millennia of shared history, makes them uniquely suited to this role.

As dogs are more often regarded as family members, their evolution and breeding have been influenced. Smaller, short-nosed breeds—resembling human infants—are particularly popular, likely because their “cute” traits trigger a natural caregiving response in humans. While this endears them to owners, it also comes with health complications, fostering further caregiving. This dynamic can create a deep sense of dependence, but overindulgence and misunderstanding of dogs’ needs can result in behavioral issues.

“The shift in dog ownership highlights a growing lack of caregiving and social support in Western societies, and people often attempt to fill this gap with dogs—and possibly cats as well,” Kubinyi concludes. “It’s crucial that we strengthen family-based support systems and combat social isolation. Dog ownership is truly rewarding when it fosters connection, rather than isolation.”

The significance of this research has been noted by others in the field. Human-animal interaction expert Hal Herzog observes that “the companion animal runaway theory offers a vital new lens through which to understand the evolving role dogs play in human psychological and social lives.”